For the time being, bears might be dead, but that doesn’t mean challenges don’t lie ahead – bull markets can be just as tough in other ways. Bull markets bring a whole new set of problems, all of which are good to have. With your portfolio entering all-time high milestones, you are likely left wondering:
How high will this go?
When should I exit?
Why didn’t I buy that other alt instead?
And a whole other slue of questions that are worth considering, but certainly not dwelling on. Today’s blog will be a two-part exploration of bitcoin’s all-time highs, first interpreting the numbers and then examining the mindset needed to succeed. Let’s draw up that plan now so we can cash in later.
The Numbers
All-time highs happen on every asset – they are inevitable in a rising market. Anytime the price incrementally increases past a previous high, it sets a new “all-time high.”
What’s far more interesting to examine than Bitcoin’s all-time highs is the major recoveries Bitcoin has made since its inception. Let’s take a look at some of the significant recoveries in the past.
Bitcoin Hit $20, Dropped to $2
Bitcoin Hit $1,150, Dropped to $178
Bitcoin Hit $19,700, Dropped to $3,250
These are the three largest and most significant corrections, excluding very early price action below $1. In addition to these three, there are two other drops that eliminated 75% and 56% of Bitcoin’s price when they occurred.
The 5 most prominent drops were 94%, 75%, 86%, 85%, and 56%.
In each instance, Bitcoin recovered from the correction and rose to new highs. How much did it rise after returning to the pre-crash price? 708%, 343%, 1,620%, 228%, and ____%.
Think about that. AFTER RECOVERING back to the price where the crash started, it continued to rise by these astounding percentages.
The unknown percentage at the end? We have just begun discovering it. This will be a slow process – in the past, it has taken as long as 4 years.
The average price rise after the 4 major recoveries is 724% – WOW. The caveat to this number is that it’s calculated from Bitcoin’s earlier gains which were far larger than gains we see today – we can account for that.
What if Bitcoin simply appreciates by ¼ of that 724% average? That would be a 181% price increase from where we are now ($61,000) – about $171,410. If Bitcoin manages to appreciate by half of the average, it would rise by 362% from the current price. That takes us to $281,820 – a sweet spot area that I have talked about before. So that concludes the numbers portion of bitcoin all-time highs, but which next leads us to the mentality needed to withstand volatility, stick to your plan, and execute when need be.
The Mentality
There comes a time when every investor is pushed to their limit and challenged on their core beliefs. Sometimes these pivotal moments pass in the blink of an eye, while in other cases they take years to play out. We have no control over the past. Wishing that you “bought earlier” or took profit at various moments on various assets is futile. The best we can do is accept our situation and welcome our fate with arms wide open. This positive attitude will serve us well when it is time to make our biggest decisions.
I am reflecting on this topic because I believe we are at an inflection point, with an epic opportunity just around the bend. Making wise decisions will soon require each of us to consider who we are and who we wish to be.
In 2000, the Dot-com bubble offered select wealthy investors a chance to quickly accumulate generational wealth. In 2008, the rich either came through relatively unscathed or were bailed out, while the middle and lower class took it on the chin. Fast forward to 2017, and crypto offered a life-changing opportunity for early adopters but most didn’t hear of Bitcoin for the first time until December of 2017, at the top. Today, we are following through on that paradigm shift, and this time everyone has equal ground to stand on. No two of us have the same portfolio or have been exposed to the same set of information, but we all have a fighting chance to improve our future. There are many paths to victory.
So what do we do when the opportunity presents itself?
For some of us, the answer is simple – do nothing. But for everyone not choosing to HODL, tough decisions lie ahead. What if it’s late December, Bitcoin blows past $100,000, RSI is through the roof, and retail is here in unprecedented numbers? Is this the end, or is this the second to last leg before +$200,000? The decision on whether to sell doesn’t become much easier, whether you have been around for 6 months or 6 years. There are so many unknowns.
The good news? We are armed with the principles and knowledge that we have learned over the past few years. We know that the simplest strategy is scaling out slowly, having patience, and being content with profit-taking. Our big moment is coming and it will be a wild ride. Embrace the moment and put into practice everything you have worked on. You are not alone – I will be right here with you.
If you are enjoying this blog and portfolio all-time highs, I highly encourage you to read this blog on the sentiment of the market called, The Crypto Market Targets Retail.